Search for: All records

Abstract Active traces of the southern Fairweather fault were revealed by light detection and ranging (lidar) and show evidence for transpressional deformation between North America and the Yakutat block in southeast Alaska. We map the Holocene geomorphic expression of tectonic deformation along the southern 30 km of the Fairweather fault, which ruptured in the 1958 moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake. Digital maps of surficial geology, geomorphology, and active faults illustrate both strike-slip and dip-slip deformation styles within a 10°–30° double restraining bend where the southern Fairweather fault steps offshore to the Queen Charlotte fault. We measure offset landforms along the fault and calibrate legacy 14C data to reassess the rate of Holocene strike-slip motion (≥49 mm/yr), which corroborates published estimates that place most of the plate boundary motion on the Fairweather fault. Our slip-rate estimates allow a component of oblique-reverse motion to be accommodated by contractional structures west of the Fairweather fault consistent with geodetic block models. Stratigraphic and structural relations in hand-dug excavations across two active fault strands provide an incomplete paleoseismic record including evidence for up to six surface ruptures in the past 5600 years, and at least two to four events in the past 810 years. The incomplete record suggests an earthquake recurrence interval of ≥270 years—much longer than intervals <100 years implied by published slip rates and expected earthquake displacements. Our paleoseismic observations and map of active traces of the southern Fairweather fault illustrate the complexity of transpressional deformation and seismic potential along one of Earth's fastest strike-slip plate boundaries. 

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes. 

Abstract The Alaska Amphibious Community Seismic Experiment (AACSE) is a shoreline-crossing passive- and active-source seismic experiment that took place from May 2018 through August 2019 along an ∼700  km long section of the Aleutian subduction zone spanning Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula. The experiment featured 105 broadband seismometers; 30 were deployed onshore, and 75 were deployed offshore in Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) packages. Additional strong-motion instruments were also deployed at six onshore seismic sites. Offshore OBS stretched from the outer rise across the trench to the shelf. OBSs in shallow water (<262  m depth) were deployed with a trawl-resistant shield, and deeper OBSs were unshielded. Additionally, a number of OBS-mounted strong-motion instruments, differential and absolute pressure gauges, hydrophones, and temperature and salinity sensors were deployed. OBSs were deployed on two cruises of the R/V Sikuliaq in May and July 2018 and retrieved on two cruises aboard the R/V Sikuliaq and R/V Langseth in August–September 2019. A complementary 398-instrument nodal seismometer array was deployed on Kodiak Island for four weeks in May–June 2019, and an active-source seismic survey on the R/V Langseth was arranged in June 2019 to shoot into the AACSE broadband network and the nodes. Additional underway data from cruises include seafloor bathymetry and sub-bottom profiles, with extra data collected near the rupture zone of the 2018 Mw 7.9 offshore-Kodiak earthquake. The AACSE network was deployed simultaneously with the EarthScope Transportable Array (TA) in Alaska, effectively densifying and extending the TA offshore in the region of the Alaska Peninsula. AACSE is a community experiment, and all data were made available publicly as soon as feasible in appropriate repositories. 

Abstract The retreat of glaciers in response to global warming has the potential to trigger landslides in glaciated regions around the globe. Landslides that enter fjords or lakes can cause tsunamis, which endanger people and infrastructure far from the landslide itself. Here we document the ongoing movement of an unstable slope (total volume of 455 × 10⁶m³) in Barry Arm, a fjord in Prince William Sound, Alaska. The slope moved rapidly between 2010 and 2017, yielding a horizontal displacement of 120 m, which is highly correlated with the rapid retreat and thinning of Barry Glacier. Should the entire unstable slope collapse at once, preliminary tsunami modeling suggests a maximum runup of 300 m near the landslide, which may have devastating impacts on local communities. Our findings highlight the need for interdisciplinary studies of recently deglaciated fjords to refine our understanding of the impact of climate change on landslides and tsunamis.